“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”
—Niels Bohr

This will be my last blog. Unless of course the Mayans were wrong. And I expect that they were. (At least I sure hope so!)

But it raises an interesting point. Everyone has been making fun of this supposed apocalypse occurring today, predicted—misinterpreted is a more accurate description I expect—by an ancient calendar system from a long-dead civilization. But although the end of the world isn’t likely nigh just yet, we’re certainly heading for a number of destructive problems that should be dealt with sooner rather than later.

At some point with respect to global warming and climate change, we’re going to reach a critical tipping point where even the impossible reduction of emissions to zero won’t be enough to stop future global catastrophe. Most carbon dioxide lingers in the atmosphere for centuries and there are positive feedbacks that only reinforce the problem, such as melting ice leading to a lower planetary albedo (i.e. lower reflectivity, allowing more of the sun’s energy to be absorbed causing greater heating rather than being reflected back into space), and melting permafrost releasing massive amounts of methane in the process.

Experts debate when that critical tipping point might be: some say it’s decades off, some say it’s right around the corner, and some say it’s already passed.

I have a feeling the Mayans said it was December 21, 2012. And I fear they may have been right.